Friday, July 31, 2020
Monday, July 27, 2020
New condo sales drop by 85% — but GTA prices hit record high
New condo sales in the GTA during the second quarter fell to their lowest levels since 2009, but prices and construction moved up, according to condo tracking market research firm Urbanation.
In terms of new condo apartment sales during the second quarter — when the province was largely shut down as it grappled with the COVID-19 pandemic — a total of 1,385 units were sold in the GTA.
Urbanation said it was the lowest level of sales activity since the first quarter in 2009 during the recession, when 885 units sold.
“New condo sales dropped 85 per cent year-over-year as only six projects and 1,176 units were launched for presale during the quarter, which compares to 40 projects and 11,415 units launched in Q2-2019,” the firm said in a news release Monday.
The second quarter is typically a busy period, said Pauline Lierman, Urbanation’s director of market research.
“When we got into Q2, COVID hit, everything from the second half of March fell to the wayside, for everybody,” she said. “The market was stagnant, nobody really knew what was going on.”
But she said there was a “silver lining,” noting that the market began to pick up again by the end of the quarter.
“Response has picked up, it picked up faster than outside the downtown area,” she said, noting some incentivization to attract buyers, such as more flexible down payment terms.
Urbanation said unit prices “in actively marketed new condo projects in development across the GTA” averaged $867 per square foot in the second quarter, which the firm said was a record high — slightly more than the $864 per square foot in the first quarter and 8 per cent more year and year.
“Developers gained confidence during the quarter as sales continued with the move to a virtual format, inventories remained low, and many projects progressed into the construction stage,” Urbanation said in its release.
The firm said 90 per cent of all new condo units in development in the GTA were pre-sold in the second quarter, compared to 88 per cent in the second quarter last year.
“New condo supply is expected to see improvement in the third quarter, as the success shown within recent new launches and the stability of the resale market during COVID-19 has pulled forward some project launches into the summer that were previously delayed to the fall,” Urbanation said.
“As of the end of July, 2,137 units launched so far during Q3.”
The firm also said that there was an increase in unit construction compared to the second quarter last year — this despite the fact that there was a government-imposed halt on construction for part of the quarter as part of efforts to limit the spread of COVID-19.
There was a total of 7,388 units that started construction, an increase of 45 per cent compared to the second quarter in 2019, Urbanation said.
“The growth in condo construction has been fuelled by the 905 Region, which saw its under construction count rise to a record high 24,690 units from 17,764 units in Q2-2019,” said Urbanation.
“Meanwhile, the number of condos under construction in the former City of Toronto (largely representing the downtown markets) declined from 39,027 units in Q2-2019 to 34,990 units in Q2-2020.”
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Wednesday, July 22, 2020
Toronto Police arrested Richard Alexis, 35 for burglaries
Police said Monday morning they arrested Richard Alexis, 35, of Toronto. On Sunday afternoon, police had initially requested the public’s help in finding Alexis, stemming from numerous break-and-enter investigations across the city.
Toronto Police inspector Paul MacIntyre said on Twitter that a man and a woman in a stolen car had been seen for days by police, but pursuits had been ended because of public safety. MacIntyre tweeted that the duo was found sleeping in a stolen car.
“It was surrounded and the two arrested,” he added. “They had this shotgun — it can’t hurt anyone now.”
In the release, police alleged they “seized two firearms during the arrest — a Remington 870 shot gun and a sawed-off .22-calibre shotgun.”
Alexis was charged with:
1. Three counts of Possession of Property Obtained by crime over $5000
2. Flight while pursued by a Peace Officer
3. Dangerous Operation of a Conveyance
4. Three counts of Fail to Comply Probation
Const. Jason Peddle, the Toronto Police Service’s vulnerable persons co-coordinator, tweeted: “Proud of the poise our men and women showed during not only this arrest … but also in the days leading up to it. Multiple potentially volatile events were handled very well by our officers … sound decisions were made that kept the public safe.”
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Man seriously hurt after shooting near Square One in Mississauga
Peel Regional Police say they were called to a lot at the corner of Hammerson Drive and Rathburn Road West at 12:29 a.m. for a report of a male who was shot.
They arrived to find the male suffering from at least one gunshot wound.
He was taken to a hospital trauma centre for treatment.
The man told police he was walking with a friend when he was shot.
Investigators are asking anyone with video footage of that area from the time the incident occurred to contact them.
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Tuesday, July 21, 2020
City of Toronto recommends next steps on whether to rename Dundas Street
City staff are recommending four options in response to the Dundas Street petition calling on the historic thoroughfare to be renamed due to its ties to anti-Black racism.
Today, the city released a briefing note that said any decision to rename a major arterial road requires careful consideration of its potential impacts and should be an inclusive public process that responds to the community at large.
The note laid out four recommendations for considering a name change to Dundas Street that will be discussed and analysed in a report for city council to review on September 23.
The suggestions are: keeping the name the same, retaining the name with additional interpretation and recognitions, keeping the name but renaming civic assets with Dundas in their name or renaming the street and other civic assets with the name.
“Considering the renaming of Dundas Street is just the beginning of the work we need to do to build a Toronto where we all belong,” Mayor John Tory said in a press release issued today. “I appreciate the thoughtful and thorough research and analysis that has gone into this briefing note by city staff and look forward to the working group’s future recommendations.”
The call for action comes after Torontonian Andrew Lochhead created an online petition in early June called “Lets Rename Dundas Street in Toronto.” The petition urges Toronto city council to cut its “historic associations with people who have worked toward preserving systems of racial inequality and exploitation,” referring specifically to the namesake of Dundas Street, Henry Dundas.
In his petition, Lochhead said Henry Dundas participated in obstructing the abolition of slavery in the British Empire from 1791 to the end of his political career in 1806.
The petition was created after weeks of worldwide protests against police brutality and racial injustice. As of Tuesday afternoon, 14,183 people have signed the petition.
In response to the city’s next steps, Lochhead tweeted on Tuesday “the fight to rename Dundas Street and remove the names of colonizers, slavers and perpetuators of genocide from our city streets and monuments is FAR from over. But a process has begun. Let’s keep the pressure up!”
According to the briefing note, city staff said the report will also calculate the estimated costs that businesses, organizations, homeowners and residents on Dundas Street could face if there is a name change. A community engagement strategy will also be outlined to address all civic assets with the Dundas name, including streets, parks, TTC, Toronto Public Library and Yonge-Dundas Square.
In addition, city staff said the report will propose a framework to more broadly understand and respond to how systemic racism and discrimination are embedded in city assets, commemorative programs and naming policies.
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Torstar shareholders approve takeover by NordStar despite rival bid
TORONTO — The $60-million acquisition of the Torstar Corp. newspaper group by NordStar Capital LP was approved this morning as expected, despite a last-minute revised proposal from a rival group.
A preliminary count of votes tallied after a brief online meeting showed the deal recommended by Torstar's board received the necessary support from the company's shareholders.
The board issued a statement prior to the meeting that NordStar's amended offer remained superior to the latest proposal from Canadian Modern Media Holdings Inc.
CMMH increased its proposed offer to 80 cents per share in cash on Monday but Torstar said NordStar's offer of 74 cents per share was superior because it could be completed more quickly.
NordStar's initial offer was worth $52 million or 63 cents per share when announced on May 27 but was increased after the rival group came forward with another proposal on July 10.
Under the NordStar plan, Torstar will delist its shares from the Toronto Stock Exchange and the publishing business will continue to be managed by its current executive team.
Torstar holds an investment in The Canadian Press as part of a joint agreement with subsidiaries of the Globe and Mail and Montreal's La Presse.
Companies in this story: (TSX:TS.B)
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Three sought after man injured in Lawrence Heights shooting
Police say they were called to Bagot Court, west of Varna Drive, after 12:30 a.m. Tuesday for multiple reports of shots fired.
Insp. Chris Boddy said they arrived to find a male suffering from a gunshot wound.
“The male was treated at the scene and taken to local hospital,” Boddy said, adding the victim’s injuries are considered serious but not life-threatening.
He said three suspects fled the scene in an unknown direction.
A police canine unit was brought in to attempt to locate them.
Officers were seen guarding evidence markers on a sidewalk.
Boddy said anyone with information about the incident is asked to call police at 416-808-3200.
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Monday, July 20, 2020
Tristawna Ona Christian, 21, arrested and Shaquille Jameel Taesean Small, 26, sought
On July 10, emergency crews were called to the shopping centre, located near Ellesmere and McCowan roads, just before 2 p.m. for a report of shots fired in the parking lot.
Upon arrival at the scene, officers located a 26-year-old male victim suffering from a single gunshot wound to his abdomen. He was taken from the scene to hospital via emergency run but was pronounced dead two days later.
On July 12, police identified the victim as Toronto resident Jordon Marcelle.
The first arrest in the case was made on July 18.
A suspect, identified by police as Toronto resident Tristawna Ona Christian, now faces a charge of first-degree murder and a charge of attempted murder.
Christian was attempting to enter the United States at the time of her arrest, Det.-Sgt. Jason Shankaran said in a tweet.
While announcing Christian’s arrest on Monday, investigators released a photo of a second suspect wanted in connection with the investigation. He has been identified by police as Toronto resident Shaquille Jameel Taesean Small.
Small is wanted for first-degree murder and attempted murder.
Anyone with further information regarding this case is asked to contact police at 416-808-7400 or Crime Stoppers anonymously at 416-222-TIPS (8477).
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COVID-19 closures fuel gun violence, youth advocates warn as shootings rise in Toronto
The number of shootings in Toronto is up over this time last year and advocates for communities at risk say the closure of safe spaces, programs and services due to the pandemic is partly to blame.
There have been 245 shootings so far this year, according to Toronto Police statistics, which left 112 people dead or injured. Twenty-four of those people died. That's past the mark set at this same time last year, when there were 216 shootings and 18 people killed.
There were four shootings in Toronto this past weekend alone, something that Louis March, the founder of the Zero Gun Violence Movement, says isn't unexpected — given that people in at-risk neighbourhoods don't have the services and places to go they usually have due to COVID-19 restrictions.
"When you take away the safe spaces from them they start doing things differently. So this weekend is not a surprise to us. The surprise is the fact that we knew it was coming and we didn't do anything to intervene, interrupt or prevent it," March told CBC News.
Halfway through 2019 — which had a record 492 shootings that claimed 44 lives — March said shootings in the city had become an epidemic.
Now, he believes the constant news of COVID-19 has eclipsed shootings, which have been trending up the entire year. And groups are still having to do their work.
March said the closures across the city meant people couldn't seek out a safe space like a community centre or even a local Tim Hortons or McDonalds — they had to be constantly moving.
"These people are desperate, they're in transit all the time," he said.
On Monday, a man was shot while driving on Highway 401 in Scarborough as a car pulled up next to him and opened fire.
While people might "act surprised" about the numbers each year, March said it's come to a point where political leaders are "not only acknowledging it but anticipating" a spike in shootings during the summer.
"What are they doing to prepare for that because that's not going to stop by itself," he asked.
Toronto Mayor John Tory called the gun violence this past weekend "deeply concerning and unacceptable" and said the only way to reduce gun violence is to invest in programs and initiatives that address its root causes.
He also repeated his call for a change to laws related to bail and sentencing for repeat offenders, as well as for support of the police and help from all three levels of government.
March said increasing programming isn't the solution if the additions aren't based on community needs, operations and engagement. Everything right now, he says, is "band-aid" reactionary work.
"I want to see legitimate action, concrete action, sustainable investment in communities, capital investment" he said.
"We can talk about roots all we want, but let's start thinking bigger. This is Toronto, a very rich and resourceful city. We can be more innovative and we can have an impact if we go to who's planting the seeds."
Marcell Wilson, who founded the One by One Movement — a "boots on the ground" advocacy group aiming to decrease extreme acts of violence among youth — said the recent shootings and pandemic closures also have him frustrated.
After-school programs run by groups like his weren't considered essential during Stage 1 or Stage 2 of the reopening plan.
Wilson said it was "baffling" but they continued to serve the best they could by heading into neighbourhoods wearing gloves and masks and physically distancing. But the closures due to the pandemic made it more likely they would "lose kids" who were in danger of falling victim to violence..
It's fair to have thought the numbers might drop because of the ongoing pandemic, Wilson said.
He added that even his group was somewhat surprised that the number didn't drop. But he said COVID-19 doesn't mitigate the risk factors that lead to acts of violence, such as fights over social media.
The root causes of extreme violence are being talked about more often, Wilson said, but people "cannot keep doing what we know doesn't work." He said red tape is hindering advocacy groups from getting the work done.
"There is money there, there are resources out there. The problem is the right groups are not receiving that money," he said.
"We're sort of sticking to a status quo of the squeaky wheel gets oiled rather than people whose work could be really effective. That's troublesome for us."
Julius Haag, an assistant professor sociology with the University of Toronto at Mississauga, said it's difficult to say how the pandemic will affect overall crime trends, but acknowledged it might make the problem worse.
"The existing social and structural issues that we have in Toronto that have contributed to rising gun violence haven't been reduced or haven't been addressed through the pandemic," he said.
"If anything, we see that the closure of spaces for young people and the lack of access to programs and services may actually exacerbate some of these issues."
"Without them being prioritized, we see that young people are going to be placed in situations that are potentially going to be dangerous," he said.
Haag said that while the "instinctual response" might be to turn to the police force for pubic safety, and while people might see politicians "taking action," the types of solutions needed are long-term ones.
The post-pandemic world has him concerned, as do potential cuts to services and programs in the city's budget if Toronto doesn't get financial help from both levels of government to compensate for the pandemic.
"I hope it will not be an excuse for people to not invest in the programs that people need to prevent crime and violence."
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Toronto mayor John Tory wants masks made mandatory in apartment common areas
Mayor John Tory is urging landlords to make masks mandatory in the public areas of their apartment buildings to protect tenants and help stop the spread of the deadly virus.
In a letter sent Monday, Tory asked the Greater Toronto Apartment Association (GTAA), which represents 240 property management companies that own and operate more than 160,000 units in the region, to “strongly encourage” their members to adopt a policy — similar to the city’s new mask bylaw for businesses — that would see tenants wear masks in common areas including lobbies, elevators and laundry rooms.
“While I understand some buildings may have already done so, many have not and this has led to communication to my office by concerned tenants and questions I am repeatedly asked in the media,” Tory’s letter read. “I believe such a policy, if enacted by the majority of your members, would further assist us in defeating COVID-19, would allow all of us to get back to a more normal life faster and that in turn will be good for everyone, including landlords.”
The letter said he had consulted the city’s medical officer of health, Dr. Eileen de Villa, and that she “believes this will help in the city’s work to stop the spread of COVID-19.”
City council recently approved a bylaw that requires apartment buildings to have enhanced cleaning and provide hand sanitizer or handwashing stations at entrances.
Tory, in his letter, noted some condo corporations have already implemented a mask policy and are posting city signage.
Tory offered assistance with signage to the GTAA, saying the city has generic signage available online explaining the requirement to wear a mask.
Coun. Josh Matlow pushed for the mandatory apartment building cleaning and sanitation bylaw after concerns from tenants and advocates that landlords were not adhering to public health guidelines.
Those guidelines say “buildings not covered by the bylaw such as apartment buildings and condos can develop a policy for mask usage in common areas.” Masks are not part of those rules.
Speaking to reporters on Monday, Tory said it’s not clear whether the city has firm legal authority to make the use of masks in apartment common areas mandatory.
The GTAA’s Daryl Chong said it’s taking the mayor’s letter seriously and will be speaking to its members.
“The mayor’s obviously informed by the chief medial officer of health and the public health authority,” Chong said. “If they think it’s a good idea then we’ll do it.”
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Toronto postpones evictions of homeless campers from Moss Park
An eviction at the Moss Park encampment originally scheduled for Tuesday has been indefinitely postponed barring any safety issues that may arise, a city of Toronto spokesperson said Monday.
Kris Scheuer said the city’s outreach team has transitioned 188 people from living at Moss Park to inside spaces, and that they will continue to do so in lieu of a mass eviction.
Since April 29, Scheuer said the city has moved at least 617 people to shelters, hotels and other interim housing. Its goal is for Moss Park to be the 43rd cleared encampment since the beginning of the pandemic.
The decision to postpone the eviction came on the same day more than a dozen people who experience homelessness and two activist organizations said they are planning to sue the city in an attempt to end evictions in public parks during the COVID-19 pandemic.
In a statement released Monday, a day before the city said it would evict the residents of the Moss Park encampment, the Ontario Coalition Against Poverty (OCAP) said the lawsuit is meant to “prevent the eviction of all encampments without the provision of adequate and acceptable accommodation.”
“The city cannot use ‘bulldozer diplomacy’ to force encampment residents into dangerous congregate living situations where we have already seen hundreds of COVID cases, or send them to hotel-shelters far from their communities and supports,” said Brendan Jowett, a lawyer with Neighbourhood Legal Services, who is serving as co-counsel to the encampment residents. “They need to provide safe, stable, permanent housing to residents.”
Scheuer said encampments are not allowed in city parks, even though evictions had not been happening at the beginning of the pandemic because the city was focused on retrofitting the shelter system for safety and social distancing.
Scheuer also said that the city is continuing to find housing for people who are homeless.
Advocates, such as OCAP and Toronto Overdose Prevention Society say that the housing the city has provided isn’t enough, claiming that the housing is too far away from where residents’ support systems are, don’t allow visitors and have early curfews.
According to OCAP, there have been more than 600 cases of COVID-19 in the city’s shelter systems, and four COVID-19-related deaths.
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Confirmation of housing-market slowdown due to COVID-19
In June the Teranet–National Bank National Composite House Price IndexTM was up 0.7% from the month before, a rise half the average for June over the previous 10 years and the lowest June advance in 17 years. And if the index were corrected for seasonal pressures (seasonal adjustment), it would show a slight decline of 0.1% in June, a first retreat in 11 months.
The index was led upward by Halifax (2.7%), Winnipeg (1.8%), Hamilton (1.7%), Ottawa-Gatineau (1.5%), Montreal (1.4%), Toronto (0.8%) and Victoria (0.8%). Trailing the countrywide average advance were Quebec City (0.5%) and Vancouver (0.2%). Prices were down on the month in Calgary (−0.1%) and Edmonton (−0.7%).
Other signs confirm the slowing of the market. First, in the wake of actions to stem the spread of Covid-19, the number of repeat sales entering into the index[1] was down 24% from June 2019, a second straight large drop from a year earlier. This drop is the reflection in the public land registries of the slowing of unit sales that began in the second half of March and extended into May. Second, after correction for seasonal fluctuation (seasonal adjustment), the raw composite index[2] for June was down 1.1% on the month and the raw indexes for six of the 11 markets of the national composite index were flat or down from the previous month.
| Dec 2011 | Index | y/y |
| Composite 11 | 148.87 | 6.80% |
In June the composite index was up 5.9% from a year earlier, a slight deceleration of the 12-month gain after 10 months of acceleration. The 12-month rise was led by the indexes for Ottawa-Gatineau (13.0%), Halifax (11.8%), Montreal (10.3%), Toronto (9.1%) and Hamilton (8.4%). Lagging the countrywide average were Winnipeg (5.1%), Victoria (2.1%), and Vancouver (1.1%). The index for Quebec City was flat from a year earlier. Deflating over the 12 months were Calgary (−1.3%) and Edmonton (−2.4%).
Besides the Toronto and Hamilton indexes included in the composite index, indexes exist for seven other urban areas of the Golden Horseshoe: Barrie, Guelph, Brantford, Kitchener, St. Catharines, Oshawa and Peterborough. As in May, the number of repeat sales was down on a year-over-year basis in six of them, by as much as 41% in the case of Peterborough. The table below presents the monthly and 12-month changes of the smoothed indexes for these markets. We note, however, that the seasonally adjusted raw indexes (not shown in the table) were down in June for Guelph, Brantford, St. Catharines, Kitchener and Oshawa, though not for Barrie and Peterborough.
Indexes not included in the composite index also exist for seven markets outside the Golden Horseshoe. Of the two in B.C., repeat sales were down sharply in both Abbotsford-Mission and Kelowna and the seasonally adjusted raw index was down for Kelowna. Repeat sales were also down sharply in all of the five markets in Ontario – London, Kingston, Windsor, Thunder Bay and Sudbury. The seasonally adjusted raw indexes were down for Windsor and London.
[1] The Teranet–National Bank House Price Index is based on the repeat-sales method, i.e. on the change in price between the two most recent sales of a given property.
[2] The published indexes are smoothed: their monthly percentage change is the average of the percentage changes of the last three months of the raw indexes. Further information on methodology is available at www.housepriceindex.ca
| Metropolitan area | Index Level | % change m/m | % change y/y | From peak | Peak date |
| Composite 11 | 238.19 | 0.69 | 5.88 | 0.00 | Jun 2020 |
| Victoria | 212.86 | 0.81 | 2.15 | 0.00 | Jun 2020 |
| Vancouver | 281.75 | 0.18 | 1.13 | -4.18 | Jul 2018 |
| Calgary | 172.76 | -0.09 | -1.29 | -8.28 | Oct 2014 |
| Edmonton | 171.95 | -0.73 | -2.42 | -8.49 | Sep 2007 |
| Winnipeg | 214.45 | 1.80 | 5.12 | 0.00 | Jun 2020 |
| Hamilton | 261.52 | 1.73 | 8.37 | 0.00 | Jun 2020 |
| Toronto | 272.16 | 0.75 | 9.09 | 0.00 | Jun 2020 |
| Ottawa-Gatineau | 186.55 | 1.49 | 13.01 | 0.00 | Jun 2020 |
| Montréal | 196.67 | 1.36 | 10.28 | 0.00 | Jun 2020 |
| Québec City | 184.59 | 0.47 | 0.03 | -0.23 | Dec 2019 |
| Halifax | 170.05 | 2.71 | 11.76 | 0.00 | Jun 2020 |
| Other metropolitan areas | |||||
| Abbotsford-Mission | 242.31 | -0.03 | 3.19 | -1.99 | Aug 2018 |
| Kelowna | 210.83 | -0.80 | 1.69 | -1.46 | Nov 2019 |
| Barrie | 224.94 | 1.30 | 7.44 | 0.00 | Jun 2020 |
| Guelph | 232.96 | -0.06 | 7.34 | -0.06 | May 2020 |
| Brantford | 240.55 | 2.07 | 8.27 | 0.00 | Jun 2020 |
| Kitchener-Cambridge-Waterloo | 239.81 | 0.43 | 10.96 | 0.00 | Jun 2020 |
| St. Catharines - Niagara | 234.79 | 0.88 | 8.08 | 0.00 | Jun 2020 |
| Oshawa | 243.50 | 0.32 | 10.03 | -0.18 | Jul 2017 |
| Peterborough | 223.91 | 2.87 | 5.48 | 0.00 | Jun 2020 |
| London | 214.49 | 0.70 | 11.37 | 0.00 | Jun 2020 |
| Kingston | 188.48 | 3.62 | 8.78 | 0.00 | Jun 2020 |
| Greater Sudbury | 199.70 | 1.57 | 5.32 | 0.00 | Jun 2020 |
| Thunder Bay | 187.93 | 3.15 | -2.20 | -3.33 | Jul 2019 |
| Windsor | 194.57 | 1.18 | 10.39 | 0.00 | Jun 2020 |
Marc Pinsonneault
Senior Economist
Economics and Strategy Group
National Bank of Canada
Senior Economist
Economics and Strategy Group
National Bank of Canada
Marc Pinsonneault
Économiste principal
Groupe économie et stratégie
Banque Nationale du Canada
Économiste principal
Groupe économie et stratégie
Banque Nationale du Canada
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