Thursday, July 11, 2013
Wednesday, July 10, 2013
Hurricane Hazel, and A History of rain and Flooding in Toronto
Although legacy of yesterday's storm is still up in the air, the deluge has naturally drawn comparisons to Toronto's other major rain disaster, Hurricane Hazel. The 1954 hurricane and associated flood was, until last night, the biggest rain event the city had ever experienced and is still its deadliest natural disaster.
A perfect storm comprising a high water table, saturated ground, and poor planning caused the sucker punch that lead to widespread changes in the way Toronto was allowed to grow.
Doing what rivers do best, the Humber and Don have all flooded countless times in their long history. In the early days of Toronto, ice jams in the spring thaw were common culprits for submerged rail tracks and washed out roads. As historian Stephen Otto notes, the straightening of the lower portion of the Don may have exacerbated the issue.
The first recorded flood in the region took place in 1797. In 1878, Brampton was inundated by water, causing damage to roads, bridges, and small mills. Early floods repeatedly wiped out the bridge at Winchester Street that led to Kingston and the east. Toronto's assortment of now-buried rivers and streams have also caused damage before they were tamed by engineering.
Here's a rough timeline of Toronto floods, starting with the mother of them all.
HURRICANE HAZEL - OCTOBER 1954
The storm started innocuously as a ridge of low pressure in the Atlantic Ocean, known as a tropical wave, west of the Azores. As storm cells in tropics often do, Hazel intensified into a sizable hurricane that lashed the Caribbean with 160 km/h winds and torrential rain. 1,000 people were killed in Haiti without the eye of the storm ever making landfall.
Hazel struck in the U.S. on 14 October, 1954, packing winds of more than 240 km/h. The force destroyed the coastal town of Garden City, South Carolina, and whirled northward towards Toronto with tremendous speed.
The "roughstorm," Hazel's leading edge, drenched the city, snarled traffic and caused minor floods in road underpasses. The Star estimated 7,000,000,000 gallons of water cascaded from the leaden skies, saturating the ground and raising the water table.
Toronto went to bed on 15 October, 1954 with a forecast of showers before midnight and stiff winds.
The screaming headlines the next day echoed what everyone already knew - Hurricane Hazel hadn't passed as a benign post-tropical storm, it had scored a direct hit on Toronto, causing serious damage and loss of life.
Five volunteer firefighters were killed when their truck was swept off Humber Blvd. south of Dundas; five children and their mother drowned when the car they were traveling in was dragged from the road by the raging torrents.
Water rose by 6-8 metres in the Humber Valley, prompting people living close to the river to scramble on to roofs, into trees - anything above the water line. Dramatic photographs showed helicopters plucking people from makeshift islands as the brown water lapped at the eaves of homes.
When the dust settled, 81 people were confirmed dead in Canada. Raymore Drive, a residential street on the floodplain of the Humber, was home to 36 of those killed. Its location close to the water and the positioning of a footbridge that later broke free and acted as a battering ram caused it to be worse hit than other streets.
On Island Road near the 401 a four-month-old baby was left orphaned when her family home was swept away with her parents, Mr. and Mrs. Clifford Thorpe, and two-year-old brother Bobby still inside.
The storm's deadly legacy and $125.2 million in damage led to the creation of the Toronto and Region Conservation Authority and widespread expropriation of flood-prone land. Restrictions on the location of homes and other buildings were implemented and much of the Humber and Don flood plains was preserved as parkland.
A memorial to the victims was built on the former site of Raymore Drive.
BIG RAIN - SEPTEMBER 1986
Two days of persistent, heavy rain over Southern Ontario affected communities from London to Toronto in the mid-80s. 63 mms of rain fell at Pearson over a 24-hour period, adding to a cumulative total that made the summer of '86 the wettest on record since 1928. 371 mms fell in June, July, and August.
Toronto police were forced to close the Don Valley Parkway due to rising water for the third time in as many months as a precaution. Waist deep water was reported in some areas as rivers overflowed.
FISHY BUSINESS - MAY 2000
A
month's worth of rain fell on Toronto in May, 2000, giving hundreds of
Don River carp the chance to become road kill. 100 km/h winds and heavy
rain flooded the Don Valley, Mimico Creek, and Black Creek River,
dredging fish and all kinds of detritus onto city roads.67.8 mms of rain fell in downtown Toronto, causing 90 power outages, 457 car crashes, 230 calls to fire crews by citizens surprised at the ferocity of the storm (sound familiar?) "We did not issue any flood warnings because we were not expecting so much rain," said flood control engineer Don Healey.
THE "MIRACLE ESCAPE" - AUGUST 2005
It didn't cause a flood, but this storm did have serious consequences. On 2 August, 2005 Air France flight 358 - an Airbus A340 - was on final approach to Pearson airport. Pilots and air traffic control were reporting thunderstorms and heavy rain in the area.
540 flights had already been cancelled that day. As the flight from Paris lined up to make a landing, the weather worsened significantly and heavy rain lashed the tarmac. The plane touched down halfway along the runway and a miscommunication between the pilots led to a delay in deploying braking mechanisms.
Moments later, the plane and all 309 people on board skated off the end of the runway and dropped down an embankment in to Etobicoke Creek. Miraculously, everybody survived the accident despite the hull being destroyed by fire.
TORNADO OUTBREAK - AUGUST 2005
As F2 tornadoes pounded Milverton, Conestogo Lake, Salem, Lake Bellwood, and areas in between, a powerful line of thunderstorms poured forth on Toronto on 19 August, 2005. At its peak, winds topped 72 km/h and 1,400 lightning strikes were recorded a minute.
103 mms of rain - 130 mms at Environment Canada's Downsview offices - fell across North York resulting in flash floods that submerged basements, backed up sewage pipes, and washed out roads, including 30 metres of Finch Avenue West.
The most dramatic moment occurred when 4 people had to be plucked from the raging Don River by marine services. 15,000 insurance claims were filed as a result of the storm cluster.
UNION STATION FLOOD - JUNE 2012
The legacy of last summer's Union Station flood was really all about comically altered photos. A burst of heavy rain caused an overflow of the sewer system that sent a cascade of sewage in to the subway and lower levels of the Front Street property. The water was pumped out quickly and TTC service resumed later that evening.
DON VALLEY FLOOD - MAY 2013
Very similar to last night's weather, 60.2 mms of rain fell in a very short period, flooding the Don River south of Bloor Street, closing the DVP, and shutting down GO's Richmond Hill line (before any trains could get stuck.) The Instagram pictures now look a little tame in comparison.
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Cost of floods in Toronto likely to exceed the $600-million price tag of 2005 storm
It may be weeks before the full extent of damage from Monday night’s flooding in Toronto is known, but the cost will likely exceed the $600-million hit from the city’s last major storm in 2005, an insurance expert said Tuesday.
Peter Karageorgos of the Insurance Bureau of Canada said that member companies are still in the early stages of assessing damage to homes and cars, and that a full dollar figure will likely not be available for at least a couple of weeks.
A harrowing ordeal as passengers stranded on flooded GO train
“Everyone’s obviously still in a clean-up state trying to get water from their basements, dry things out,” Mr. Karageorgos said.
Still, he said, judging from the scope of damage and area affected by Monday night’s rain, he’s “suspecting more claims and a higher dollar amount than that 2005 storm.”
In the August, 2005, storm, which washed out Finch Avenue and flooded hundreds of basements, he said damage was limited to specific pockets of the city – much of it in parts of North York around Finch Avenue West at Black Creek Drive.
Monday’s storm, on the other hand, he said, appeared to been much more widespread.
Record rainfalls on Monday brought massive power outages, shut down major highways, and flooded homes across the GTA. As of Tuesday morning, tens of thousands of residents in the city remained without power and a number of roads and transit routes were still closed.
The Insurance Bureau of Canada represents private home, car and business insurers in the country.
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Peter Karageorgos of the Insurance Bureau of Canada said that member companies are still in the early stages of assessing damage to homes and cars, and that a full dollar figure will likely not be available for at least a couple of weeks.
A harrowing ordeal as passengers stranded on flooded GO train
“Everyone’s obviously still in a clean-up state trying to get water from their basements, dry things out,” Mr. Karageorgos said.
Still, he said, judging from the scope of damage and area affected by Monday night’s rain, he’s “suspecting more claims and a higher dollar amount than that 2005 storm.”
In the August, 2005, storm, which washed out Finch Avenue and flooded hundreds of basements, he said damage was limited to specific pockets of the city – much of it in parts of North York around Finch Avenue West at Black Creek Drive.
Monday’s storm, on the other hand, he said, appeared to been much more widespread.
Record rainfalls on Monday brought massive power outages, shut down major highways, and flooded homes across the GTA. As of Tuesday morning, tens of thousands of residents in the city remained without power and a number of roads and transit routes were still closed.
The Insurance Bureau of Canada represents private home, car and business insurers in the country.
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Dramatic photos show parts of Toronto underwater
Bad news for Torontonians still reeling after Monday's record downpour:
it's not over yet. Environment Canada warns that another powerful system
could move over the area on Tuesday night. These dramatic Twitter and
Instagram photos offer a look at what the city has been facing so far.
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Massive rain storm hits Toronto causing flooding and power outages
Toronto is in the midst of getting hit by a massive rain storm, with totals reaching as high as 75mm of precipitation (some reports have as much as 90mm fallen at Pearson Airport). A procession of powerful thunderstorms is currently working its way through the GTA, causing localized flooding, power outages, and frowns all round.
Right now, the TTC says the subway system holding in key areas due to a series of signal and flooding issues. There are pockets which remain in use on the YUS line and the Bloor-Danforth line is running between Jane and Kennedy, but much of the system is shut down. There are also widespread reports of flooding at Union Station.
Streetcar service may be affected due to surface flooding but there are no reports of any issues with power. There are also reports of flooding on the DVP, 401, and several other major roads, including Lake Shore and Esplanade.
Widespread power outages have been reported in Toronto, while reports indicate that 70 per cent of Mississauga is without power. Both Square One and and Sherway malls have been evacuated due to flooding.
Pictures began to surface almost immediately of cars stranded in flooded underpasses, burst storm drains spewing geysers, and general soaking misery for thousands of rush-hour commuters. Here are some preliminary photos of the storm, with more to come shortly.
Add your photos of the storm to Instagram with the hashtag #drenchedTO.
UPDATE: 19:36
TTC: Yonge-University-Spadina line is closed Davisville to St. Clair West, Osgoode to Bloor, Lawrence to Finch, Bloor-Danforth is down from Ossington to Kipling, and there's no service on the Sheppard line.
ROADS: Disaster, frankly. Too many local floods to count. DVP is closed south of the Bloor/Bayview exit and cops are turning cars around, Allen Road is closed at Eglinton, Lake Shore is a mess, Bayview is closed south of Pottery Road, King is reportedly bad around Atlantic Ave., and a large portion of Highway 427 is a lake.
HYDRO: Current estimates are 300,000 without power in the GTA.
WEATHER: Rain is easing right now but more is in the forecast. Here are some current rainfall levels: 92 mms at Pearson, 90mm downtown, 107 mm reported in places. The one-day record is 121 mm at Pearson and the CBC says that could go with this next wave.
UPDATE: 19:55
Reports now of a trapped GO train south of Pottery Road on the Richmond Hill line. Pictures show water rising through the train. Pictures below.
Toronto Police, not surprisingly, are advising people avoid traveling and warn to steer clear of rivers and streams. Waters are extremely unpredictable.
UPDATE: 20:15
Rob Ford on CBC Radio: "We have to batten down the hatches and do the best we can." Says call 311 for non-emergencies, 911 for emergencies. "I don't want to say this is scary but it's getting very uncomfortable right now," he added after seeing some flood damage. "It's a major concern."
"Stay at home and take care of people who might be vulnerable"
UPDATE: 20:20
Pictures now emerging of commuters swimming away from GO train trapped in the Don Valley. Marine unit responding.
More rain on the radar - weather reports say it won't be as heavy, possibly another 10-20 mms. Should be here in around 30 to 40 minutes.
UPDATE: 20:33
TTC: No service on Yonge-University-Spadina from Downsview to St Clair West, Osgoode to Bloor, Lawrence to Finch. Bloor-Danforth down Ossington to Kipling, Sheppard Line still shut. Shuttle buses on routes. TTC's Brad Ross: "It will be slow."
GO TRANSIT: Reports of trains trapped in several locations. Staff say avoid the service until further notice.
AIRPORTS: Porter has cancelled all flights out of Billy Bishop this evening. Some cancellations at Pearson though getting there will be one of the biggest issues for travelers.
ROADS: Avoid, avoid, avoid. DVP closed south of York Mills, floods on Highway 427, 401, and Allen Road. Still lots of local floods, too. Traffic lights are out at numerous intersections across the city - treat these intersections as a four-way stop.
POWER: Toronto Hydro says around 300,000 still without power. Crews assessing damage.
UPDATE: 20:56
FORD: 30 minutes ago the Toronto Sun's Don Peat reported the mayor was in his SUV with the AC running. Power is out at his Etobicoke home.
UPDATE: 21:00
TTC: Service is back on the Bloor-Danforth line west to Jane. Problems on the Yonge-University-Spadina and Sheppard lines still as reported earlier. 501 Queen streetcar is turning back at the Humber loop due to flooding at Parklawn. 504 King is out between Roncesvalles and Shaw due to flooding. 65 shuttle buses in service right now.
ELSEWHERE: Drake Hotel's Calgary Flood benefit is cancelled due to flooding, says @SallySalmon on Twitter.
UPDATE: 21:10
ELSEWHERE: Doug Ford is directing traffic at Dixon and Islington, reports CBC's Steven D'Souza on Twitter. Picture below.
UPDATE: 21:14
WEATHER: It's still raining steadily in the GTA - no sign yet of any issues related to the predicted next wave of storms. Here's the latest radar image. In short, more rain to come.
UPDATE: 21:25
GO TRANSIT: The Toronto Police Marine Unit is helping evacuate passengers off that stranded GO train near Pottery Road. Here's what their website has to say:
"Lakeshore West Passengers: A portion of the track west of Long Branch is completely under water, making us unable to operate trains along the Lakeshore West line. We are investigating alternatives and an update will be provided as information becomes available."
"As our trains run from west to east, Lakeshore East Passengers will experience delays and possible cancellations this evening. Updates will be provide as they become available."
"Weather conditions and the resulting traffic delays are affecting our GO Buses this afternoon. GO Buses are experiencing delays of up to 60 minutes."
UPDATE: 21:50
TTC: CEO Andy Byford speaking on CP24 says the TTC will "do its damnedest to get everyone to work tomorrow." Signals and other electrics need to be inspected before subway service can resume. Looks like the commute could be rough in the morning.
GO TRANSIT: Marine Unit still helping EMS workers evacuate passengers in the Don Valley. No reports of any injuries though there's plenty of frustration. The train has been stuck for more than four hours.
WEATHER: Severe thunderstorm watch for the GTA has now ended. Rain still in the forecast.
UPDATE: 22:06
POWER: The lights are starting to come back on in Mississauga and Vaughan. Hooray!
UPDATE: 22:19
GO TRANSIT: Despite CP24's best efforts to amp up the drama (they have seriously likened the train to the Titanic) most of the people being ferried off the stranded cars by dinghy are in good spirits. There were reports earlier that a water snake was seen on the train but that appears to be the height of the action.
UPDATE: 22:28
WEATHER: Things seem to be settling down so now seems to be a good time to take stock of some rainfall numbers as of 10:30:
- PEARSON: 123 mms
- CITY: 91 mms
- ISLAND: 84 mms
- OSHAWA: 4 mms
Wettest. Day. Ever. Let's see what tomorrow brings...
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Toronto gets a record-breaking soaking
It rained yesterday. It rained a lot. It rained so much that a GO train became trapped in the Don Valley, the highways disappeared under an oceanic amount of water, and Doug Ford even started directing traffic at Dixon Road and Islington Avenue. Rob Ford, on the other hand, had to decamp to his idling SUV because the power and AC was out at his home. Crisis? What crisis.
Re-live pictures of Toronto's worst ever rain storm in all its soggy-shoed glory here and be glad things didn't turn out worse. If you're counting, the Pearson received 126 mms in under two hours - more than what fell during Hurricane Hazel and more than what's expected for all of July.
Here's an update on how things stand around the city:
TTC: Service has been restored on the Yonge-University-Spadina and Sheppard lines and the TTC expects to be operating at full capacity for the rush-hour. The Bloor-Danforth line is using shuttle buses between Jane and Kipling due to a flood that damaged a substation. Streetcars may experience delays due to localized problems - the 504 King is out between Roncesvalles and Shaw due to a flood at Dufferin.
ROADS: Mostly back to normal. The DVP, 401, 427, Lake Shore, and Bayview have all re-opened are operating as normal. The underpass at King and Atlantic is still underwater the 401 collector exit ramp to the 400 is closed. Downed trees and localized issues are causing problems city-wide.
GO TRANSIT: There are a lot of lingering delays specific to each line. Trains are running on the Lake Shore East and West lines though there is a shuttle bus between Port Credit and Union and there are a handful of cancellations and outages elsewhere.
AIR: No closures though there may be delays out of Pearson. Best to check with the airline.
POWER: Mostly back on though there are pockets in the west end where the lights may still be out.
WEATHER: More rain! Showers and thunderstorms expected this afternoon, though nothing on the scale of yesterday's deluge. High of 26 C plus humidity.
More than 1,400 people were rescued from a GO train that became stranded in rising flood waters just south of Pottery Road in the Don Valley. Many of the passengers were stuck on for more than four hours and two people attempted to swim to safety. One needed rescuing from the water. Amazingly, no injuries, and the line is now clear.
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Tuesday, July 9, 2013
42 areas in GTA at risk from serious flood, experts warn
Hurricane Hazel killed 81 people in southern Ontario in
October, 1954. It still ranks as Canada's most lethal natural disaster.
GLOBE AND MAIL
Monday’s
dark, violent rainstorm left tens of thousands without power, the
subway unusable, cars abandoned in flooded highways and stranded train
passengers having to be rescued by boat in the wee hours of the morning
But it’s also an unsettling reminder of the danger that uncontrollable flooding has held for the Greater Toronto Area in the past – and, experts warn, will hold in the future.
Monday, flooding appeared on the Don Valley Parkway below the Bloor Viaduct, railway lines around Pottery Road, and a stretch of Hwy. 427 near Burnamthorpe Rd.
In a much bigger storm – which planners call the ‘regulatory storm,’ and popular culture calls the ’100-year storm,’ dozens of areas in the GTA would be at risk of serious flooding.
For some cities, like New York and New Orleans, the danger from a major hurricane comes in from the sea, lashing buildings with wild winds and pushing ocean water inland.
Toronto’s nemesis, in a worst-case scenario, works the other way around: unmanageable sheets of rain, running off fields and parking lots, swelling creeks and the city’s rivers with a roaring, lethal flood as it heads downhill towards Lake Ontario.
It has happened before: Hurricane Hazel, a catastrophic 1954 storm, killed 81 people in Ontario. Dozens of houses in Etobicoke, built in a flood plain, were obliterated when the Humber River rose quickly at night. Hazel still stands as Canada’s worst natural disaster in terms of loss of life.
Since the 1950s, Ontario’s emergency plans have assumed a storm like Hazel would happen again, and have worked from there, banning development in river valleys and building systems to channel or deflect large amounts of water.
Still, officials warn, hundreds of buildings, home to thousands of people, remain at some level of risk in a Hazel-scale storm. The GTA has 42 “flood-vulnerable” areas in or near river valleys. Some are residential.
“Those areas would have different depths of flooding” in a Hazel-scale storm, explains Laurian Farrell, manager of flood risk management at the Toronto and Region Conservation Authority. “Some would be severe, and some would be very minor, within a few inches or less than a foot, which people can pretty much deal with, but when you get into three feet to six feet of flooding it’s very difficult to deal with.”
Many old village cores in Peel and York Region are defined as flood-vulnerable: Malton, Brampton, Woodbridge, Bolton, Maple, Thornhill, Markham, Unionville, Stouffville and Pickering. Some of these communities, like Bolton, were originally built around a mill, which needed access to a river.
“We have a lot of structures that were built before policies that limited the amount of development within the floodplain,” Farrell explains. “Those areas have a historic significance, and we are not going to start expropriating land or start demolishing houses, but we need to manage them more closely.”
In Toronto itself, officials would be concerned about residential
areas in the Weston Road and Black Creek area, and Hoggs Hollow.
Evacuations might be necessary in specific areas, including several hundred from downtown Brampton:
“They’re not massive evacuations where we’re talking about thousands of people. Some areas it’s less than 50 people – it really just depends.”
Whatever the intensity of the storm, Farrell explains, a Hazel-scale loss of life is unlikely today, in part because communities would have several days to prepare:
“For Hazel, there were warning signs, but people didn’t understand the severity of the situation for our region. They knew the storm was coming, the meteorologists did put out warnings, but the general awareness of what that actually meant wasn’t there. The majority of the issues started overnight, when people were sleeping in their homes, which is why we saw such devastation. Today, that wouldn’t happen.”
But a hurricane is only one source of danger, she warns: “Storms are
changing. It may not be the Hazel-type storm that causes the problem in
the future – it may be one of the summer flash thunderstorms, which
would be highly localized flooding.”
(In 2005, a violent summer storm destroyed part of Finch Ave. W. over Black Creek, when storm water overwhelmed a culvert.)
A major flood would also affect the mouth of the Don River, as intense rainfall from a huge area stretching as far north as Richmond Hill would be forced through a large area.
A recently built earth berm protects areas to the west of the river mouth.
“The catastrophic concern has been addressed, because the West Don Lands earthworks that is the floodproofing is floodproofing for whole downtown to the financial district,” says local councillor Pam McConnell, whose ward lies to the west of the river. “So if we had had another Hurricane Hazel hit us, then the Don River would (have flown) over and gone to the financial district. It cannot now.”
However, areas to the east, around the south end of Broadview Ave., would still be flooded to some extent in an extreme storm.
“There are major concerns still with the lower Don,” warns councillor Glenn De Baeremaeker, who sits on the TRCA’s board. “That area, most of it will be flooded if there’s a big storm. It would be under a foot or two of water if there was a flood.”
At the foot of Carruthers Creek in Ajax, 16 houses are in the way of a potential flood during a Hazel-scale storm, engineers warned in 2011. (That number was revised down from 59.)
One problem, explains Colleen Jordan, a Durham regional councillor who sits on the TRCA’s board, is that houses which were on the safe side of a flood line when they were built can become endangered by later development upstream, as the land becomes paved and less able to absorb rainfall.
“As development on green fields occurs upstream, it places lower-lying communities at risk for flooding, because of the impermeable pavement, so the land isn’t absorbing the water as well. Also, with climate change, the frequency and severity of extreme weather events will be increasing.”
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But it’s also an unsettling reminder of the danger that uncontrollable flooding has held for the Greater Toronto Area in the past – and, experts warn, will hold in the future.
Monday, flooding appeared on the Don Valley Parkway below the Bloor Viaduct, railway lines around Pottery Road, and a stretch of Hwy. 427 near Burnamthorpe Rd.
In a much bigger storm – which planners call the ‘regulatory storm,’ and popular culture calls the ’100-year storm,’ dozens of areas in the GTA would be at risk of serious flooding.
For some cities, like New York and New Orleans, the danger from a major hurricane comes in from the sea, lashing buildings with wild winds and pushing ocean water inland.
Toronto’s nemesis, in a worst-case scenario, works the other way around: unmanageable sheets of rain, running off fields and parking lots, swelling creeks and the city’s rivers with a roaring, lethal flood as it heads downhill towards Lake Ontario.
It has happened before: Hurricane Hazel, a catastrophic 1954 storm, killed 81 people in Ontario. Dozens of houses in Etobicoke, built in a flood plain, were obliterated when the Humber River rose quickly at night. Hazel still stands as Canada’s worst natural disaster in terms of loss of life.
Since the 1950s, Ontario’s emergency plans have assumed a storm like Hazel would happen again, and have worked from there, banning development in river valleys and building systems to channel or deflect large amounts of water.
Still, officials warn, hundreds of buildings, home to thousands of people, remain at some level of risk in a Hazel-scale storm. The GTA has 42 “flood-vulnerable” areas in or near river valleys. Some are residential.
| Direct link to graphic MAPPING THE GTA’S FLOOD-VULNERABLE AREASToronto’s complex ravine system has the potential for dangerous, locally intense floods. The Toronto Region Conservation Authority map linked below shows places that experts say are in danger of some level of flooding in times of extreme rain.  |
“Those areas would have different depths of flooding” in a Hazel-scale storm, explains Laurian Farrell, manager of flood risk management at the Toronto and Region Conservation Authority. “Some would be severe, and some would be very minor, within a few inches or less than a foot, which people can pretty much deal with, but when you get into three feet to six feet of flooding it’s very difficult to deal with.”
Many old village cores in Peel and York Region are defined as flood-vulnerable: Malton, Brampton, Woodbridge, Bolton, Maple, Thornhill, Markham, Unionville, Stouffville and Pickering. Some of these communities, like Bolton, were originally built around a mill, which needed access to a river.
“We have a lot of structures that were built before policies that limited the amount of development within the floodplain,” Farrell explains. “Those areas have a historic significance, and we are not going to start expropriating land or start demolishing houses, but we need to manage them more closely.”
Evacuations might be necessary in specific areas, including several hundred from downtown Brampton:
“They’re not massive evacuations where we’re talking about thousands of people. Some areas it’s less than 50 people – it really just depends.”
Whatever the intensity of the storm, Farrell explains, a Hazel-scale loss of life is unlikely today, in part because communities would have several days to prepare:
“For Hazel, there were warning signs, but people didn’t understand the severity of the situation for our region. They knew the storm was coming, the meteorologists did put out warnings, but the general awareness of what that actually meant wasn’t there. The majority of the issues started overnight, when people were sleeping in their homes, which is why we saw such devastation. Today, that wouldn’t happen.”
| FLOODING INFORMATION Concerned about flood danger? TRCA flood experts can be reached at floodmessage -at- trca.on.ca or 416-661-6514. |
(In 2005, a violent summer storm destroyed part of Finch Ave. W. over Black Creek, when storm water overwhelmed a culvert.)
A major flood would also affect the mouth of the Don River, as intense rainfall from a huge area stretching as far north as Richmond Hill would be forced through a large area.
A recently built earth berm protects areas to the west of the river mouth.
“The catastrophic concern has been addressed, because the West Don Lands earthworks that is the floodproofing is floodproofing for whole downtown to the financial district,” says local councillor Pam McConnell, whose ward lies to the west of the river. “So if we had had another Hurricane Hazel hit us, then the Don River would (have flown) over and gone to the financial district. It cannot now.”
However, areas to the east, around the south end of Broadview Ave., would still be flooded to some extent in an extreme storm.
“There are major concerns still with the lower Don,” warns councillor Glenn De Baeremaeker, who sits on the TRCA’s board. “That area, most of it will be flooded if there’s a big storm. It would be under a foot or two of water if there was a flood.”
At the foot of Carruthers Creek in Ajax, 16 houses are in the way of a potential flood during a Hazel-scale storm, engineers warned in 2011. (That number was revised down from 59.)
One problem, explains Colleen Jordan, a Durham regional councillor who sits on the TRCA’s board, is that houses which were on the safe side of a flood line when they were built can become endangered by later development upstream, as the land becomes paved and less able to absorb rainfall.
“As development on green fields occurs upstream, it places lower-lying communities at risk for flooding, because of the impermeable pavement, so the land isn’t absorbing the water as well. Also, with climate change, the frequency and severity of extreme weather events will be increasing.”
Record rains cause heavy flooding in Toronto
The Toronto area was drying out Tuesday morning after record rainfall the night before closed transit and roadways, stranded commuters knocked out power in several areas, flooded homes and caused other damage.
Environment Canada said some parts of the GTA had been drenched with more than 100 millimetres of rain, trouncing the previous one-day rainfall record of 29.2 mm in 2008 for Toronto and even beating the 74.4 mm monthly average for July.
Water from flash flooding poured out of sewer drains while Toronto’s downtown core was dotted with abandoned vehicles, some sitting in water up to their windows. One woman, sporting a T-shirt and shorts, dove head-first through the window of her marooned car before wading away in the thigh-deep currents.
Mayor Rob Ford encouraged people to stay inside their homes where possible, except to check on the vulnerable, elderly, or those who may not be able to cope on their own.
He said the city is taking an “all hands on deck” approach to dealing with the “serious situation” caused by the first round of storms. He said civic officials are bracing for the second round now nearing the western end of the GTA.
He asked Toronto residents not to call 911 unless it’s a dire emergency because the line is getting overwhelmed. He urged people to contact 311 for information updates.
Toronto Hydro reported approximately 300,000 customers were without power across Toronto by 7:30 p.m. Monday.
About 35,000 of its customers were still without electricity as of about 3 a.m., primarily in the west end of the city, Toronto Hydro said.
Milly Bernal, a spokeswoman for the Toronto Transit Commission said that some stations are flooded and some are operating with emergency lights.
Ms. Bernal said Yonge-University-Spadina line is closed from Downsview station to St. Clair, St. Andrew to Bloor, and from Lawrence to Finch. The Bloor line has been shut down from Jane to Kipling, and the entire Sheppard line is out of service.
Porter Airlines has cancelled all Toronto flights for the rest of the day because of the storm and power outages at the airport. The airline tweeted that passengers will be accommodated on flights tomorrow, and that high call volumes are causing longer than average wait times at their call centre.
Between 30 and 40 millimetres of rain had fallen by 6:15 p.m. with another 10 to 15 expected this evening, Councillor Denzil Minnan-Wong said, based on reports from the Toronto and Region Conservation Authority.
“We are receiving significant reports of basement flooding,” Councillor Minnan-Wong said. Underpasses in the downtown are also flooded, he said.
Road closures include the Don Valley Parkway between Bloor Street and the Gardiner and Allen Road northbound at Eglinton, he said.
Mobile phone and text service was down for numerous Rogers and Fido customers in the region Monday night, making it difficult for many caught in the storm to reach loved ones. Rogers spokesperson Patricia Trott confirmed that the service interruption was related to the severe weather battering the area, but could not confirm the number of people affected by the outage. "We apologize to our customers and are working to fix the problem as soon as possible," she said. Mobilicity customers also reported outages.
Pockets of the downtown core were also rife with gridlock, as many intersections, including in the Queen-Bathurst area, had no police on hand to direct traffic.
Small, street-level retail businesses, many lacking the backup power afforded by larger companies, faced some of the worst consequences of the outages.
Jeff Caires, owner of the Tequila Bookworm restaurant and bar at Queen Street West and Portland Street, said he hadn't seen rain so bad in the more than seven years he'd been at the location.
"I've never seen anything like this," Mr. Caires said. While the basement wasn't flooded, he said the shop's backyard was.
While some power was restored in the area at about 7:30 p.m., there were still some stretches affected further west downtown, including on Queen Street near Trinity Bellwoods Park. The park's off-leash "dog bowl" section, located near a ravine, had turned into a veritable lake with water nearly a foot deep in some places.
"We're currently facing significant system issues," said Andrea Corkum, a Hydro spokesperson. "There are so many outages everywhere."
All of Toronto Hydro's crews are currently out making repairs and they will likely work throughout the night, focusing on the largest outages first, according to Ms. Corkum.
GO Transit spokeswoman Vanessa Thomas said that flooding on train tracks is affecting trains between Toronto Union Station and Richmond Hill.
TTC chair Karen Stintz posted a photo on Twitter showing ankle-deep water in Queen's Park subway station saying "thank you for your patience. TTC is working hard."
Reached late Tuesday night Councillor Doug Ford said he directed traffic for four hours in Etobicoke. "Absolutely," he said in a message. "Everyone was helping."
With files from Josh O'Kane and the Canadian Press
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Environment Canada said some parts of the GTA had been drenched with more than 100 millimetres of rain, trouncing the previous one-day rainfall record of 29.2 mm in 2008 for Toronto and even beating the 74.4 mm monthly average for July.
Water from flash flooding poured out of sewer drains while Toronto’s downtown core was dotted with abandoned vehicles, some sitting in water up to their windows. One woman, sporting a T-shirt and shorts, dove head-first through the window of her marooned car before wading away in the thigh-deep currents.
Mayor Rob Ford encouraged people to stay inside their homes where possible, except to check on the vulnerable, elderly, or those who may not be able to cope on their own.
He said the city is taking an “all hands on deck” approach to dealing with the “serious situation” caused by the first round of storms. He said civic officials are bracing for the second round now nearing the western end of the GTA.
He asked Toronto residents not to call 911 unless it’s a dire emergency because the line is getting overwhelmed. He urged people to contact 311 for information updates.
Toronto Hydro reported approximately 300,000 customers were without power across Toronto by 7:30 p.m. Monday.
About 35,000 of its customers were still without electricity as of about 3 a.m., primarily in the west end of the city, Toronto Hydro said.
Milly Bernal, a spokeswoman for the Toronto Transit Commission said that some stations are flooded and some are operating with emergency lights.
Ms. Bernal said Yonge-University-Spadina line is closed from Downsview station to St. Clair, St. Andrew to Bloor, and from Lawrence to Finch. The Bloor line has been shut down from Jane to Kipling, and the entire Sheppard line is out of service.
Porter Airlines has cancelled all Toronto flights for the rest of the day because of the storm and power outages at the airport. The airline tweeted that passengers will be accommodated on flights tomorrow, and that high call volumes are causing longer than average wait times at their call centre.
Between 30 and 40 millimetres of rain had fallen by 6:15 p.m. with another 10 to 15 expected this evening, Councillor Denzil Minnan-Wong said, based on reports from the Toronto and Region Conservation Authority.
“We are receiving significant reports of basement flooding,” Councillor Minnan-Wong said. Underpasses in the downtown are also flooded, he said.
Road closures include the Don Valley Parkway between Bloor Street and the Gardiner and Allen Road northbound at Eglinton, he said.
Mobile phone and text service was down for numerous Rogers and Fido customers in the region Monday night, making it difficult for many caught in the storm to reach loved ones. Rogers spokesperson Patricia Trott confirmed that the service interruption was related to the severe weather battering the area, but could not confirm the number of people affected by the outage. "We apologize to our customers and are working to fix the problem as soon as possible," she said. Mobilicity customers also reported outages.
Pockets of the downtown core were also rife with gridlock, as many intersections, including in the Queen-Bathurst area, had no police on hand to direct traffic.
Small, street-level retail businesses, many lacking the backup power afforded by larger companies, faced some of the worst consequences of the outages.
Jeff Caires, owner of the Tequila Bookworm restaurant and bar at Queen Street West and Portland Street, said he hadn't seen rain so bad in the more than seven years he'd been at the location.
"I've never seen anything like this," Mr. Caires said. While the basement wasn't flooded, he said the shop's backyard was.
While some power was restored in the area at about 7:30 p.m., there were still some stretches affected further west downtown, including on Queen Street near Trinity Bellwoods Park. The park's off-leash "dog bowl" section, located near a ravine, had turned into a veritable lake with water nearly a foot deep in some places.
"We're currently facing significant system issues," said Andrea Corkum, a Hydro spokesperson. "There are so many outages everywhere."
All of Toronto Hydro's crews are currently out making repairs and they will likely work throughout the night, focusing on the largest outages first, according to Ms. Corkum.
GO Transit spokeswoman Vanessa Thomas said that flooding on train tracks is affecting trains between Toronto Union Station and Richmond Hill.
TTC chair Karen Stintz posted a photo on Twitter showing ankle-deep water in Queen's Park subway station saying "thank you for your patience. TTC is working hard."
Reached late Tuesday night Councillor Doug Ford said he directed traffic for four hours in Etobicoke. "Absolutely," he said in a message. "Everyone was helping."
With files from Josh O'Kane and the Canadian Press
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Wednesday, July 3, 2013
Toronto home prices could fall as interest rates creep up
Even a half point rise in rates, which have been edging up incrementally the last few weeks, could translate into a 9 per cent slump in sales and a 2.6 per cent drop in prices by 2015, compared to where the market stood in 2012, notes economist Will Dunning in a rates-impact assessment released Wednesday.
“Once house prices start to fall, the outcome is unpredictable,” depending on how consumer confidence is affected, he says.
“It could be that once consumers start to expect prices to fall, the reduction in demand will be larger than it needs to be (based on economic fundamentals) and therefore price reductions will be larger than they need to be.”
“Moreover, because “housing wealth” is a very strong driver of job creation, what starts as a small drop in house prices can turn into a major event for the broader economy.”
Dunning is chief economist for the Canadian Association of Accredited Mortgage Professionals, the umbrella group for mortgage brokers.
But he stresses that he did this analysis on his own because he’s been asked so many times lately what could happen to the housing market – which has already suffered a slump in sales and an easing of growth in prices since tougher mortgage lending rules were introduced last summer – if interest rates inch up from historic lows.
Many economists believe Toronto’s decade-long housing boom has been largely credit-driven and that, as rates start climbing, the bubble could burst, especially in what the Bank of Canada has warned is the city’s over-supplied condo sector.
Dunning recently cautioned that Ottawa’s attempts to cool Toronto and Vancouver’s overheated housing markets, by making it tougher for first-time buyers to qualify for financing, is likely to result in a 25 to 30 per cent decline in housing starts by 2015 and 150,000 fewer construction jobs across the country.
And that dire prediction came before many of the big banks had started incrementally increasing rates on their fixed-term mortgages in the wake of market reaction to U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke’s recent warning that $85 billion (U.S.) in monthly bond buying may be coming to an end this year.
As of Friday, BMO’s five-year fixed mortgage climbed 0.20 per cent to 3.59 and RBC’s was set at 3.69.
Dunning believes the rate increases aren’t justified and that they could retreat somewhat in the next few months. But he adds that “if the rises persist, the risks (to the housing market) are increased.”
Dunning says that Toronto Real Estate Board sales numbers for June, being released in a few days, will likely show there has been a rush of buyers into the market recently, trying to fast-track house purchases armed with pre-approved mortgage rates negotiated before rates started increasing.
He calls that “borrowed activity from the future.”
“The real test will come in the fall,” says Dunning, when those pre-approvals have expired, especially if rates hold at their new or even slightly higher levels.
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